2024 will be a milestone year for global intelligent driving, with China set to lead the global progress
After several days, the renowned technology consulting firm ICV released a report titled "Global Intelligent Driving Forecast - 2024." The report highlights that in the first half of 2024, the global level of intelligent driving has further improved, with the penetration rate of L2 intelligent driving vehicles surpassing 40%. Levels L3 and L4 of passenger cars have also begun to take shape, with a penetration rate of 2.13%. Notably, only 17.75% of passenger cars lack any driver assistance features.
The ICV report highlights the rapid development of global intelligent driving since 2023, with a primary focus on the commercialization of L2 and L3 technologies. In 2023, the penetration rate of L1 and above intelligent driving vehicles exceeded 80%, reaching 80.21%, showing a significant increase compared to 2022. The penetration rate of L1 vehicles was 43.11% in 2023, but the decline became more pronounced afterward. By the first half of 2024, the L1 penetration rate had dropped to 40.08%, indicating that passenger cars with lower levels of intelligent driving will gradually decrease in the future.
ICV analysts project that by 2030, the penetration rate of L2 and above intelligent driving vehicles will reach 64.54%, totaling approximately 66.77 million units, making them the dominant force in the passenger car market. Additionally, with various countries implementing policies and regulations for L3 and above passenger cars in recent years, the development of these vehicles is expected to accelerate. It is anticipated that by 2030, the penetration rate of L3-L4 passenger cars will reach 9.32%, with an annual compound growth rate of 65.8% from 2020 to 2030.
The year 2024 will be a significant milestone for global intelligent driving, as L2 passenger car sales are expected to surpass L1 for the first time. By the end of 2024, the penetration rate of L2 and above intelligent driving vehicles will approach 50%. This means that starting in 2024, cars sold worldwide will generally be equipped with advanced intelligent driving systems and features.
In terms of regional distribution, China will remain a major market in the global automotive industry. According to the ICV report, by 2030, China's automotive sales market is projected to account for nearly 40% of the global total. In the L2 passenger car segment, China is expected to leverage its first-mover advantage, capturing 48% of global sales in the first half of 2024. As other regions gradually enhance their intelligent driving technologies, it is anticipated that China's share of the global L2 market will slightly decrease to 45% by 2030, with sales reaching 26.11 million units.
Additionally, with the explosive growth of the new energy vehicle market in China over the past two years and strong policy support at the end of 2023, China holds a first-mover advantage in the L3-L4 vehicle segment. By 2030, it is expected that China's global market share in this category will reach 58%. Both in terms of global market share and absolute growth figures, this indicates that over the next six years, the Chinese market will be a key driver of global intelligent driving technology development.
China is experiencing a rapid growth phase in the intelligent driving industry, and several driving factors behind this trend are worth noting and can serve as lessons for other regions.
Firstly, the Chinese government has provided strong support for the development of intelligent driving technologies at the national level. For example, at the end of 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with three other departments, issued a notice regarding the admission and pilot operation of intelligent connected vehicles, designating seven cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, as pilot areas for L3 and L4 autonomous driving technologies. This policy has significantly accelerated China's progress in high-level autonomous vehicles.
Secondly, China's vast automotive consumer market and the increasing purchasing power of consumers create favorable conditions for the widespread application of intelligent driving technologies.
Moreover, the active involvement of Chinese companies in the intelligent driving sector and the rapid growth of innovative enterprises have not only enhanced China's position in the global technology competition but also enabled effective cost control in automotive manufacturing through leveraging the cost advantages of the manufacturing industry. This, in turn, further promotes the prosperity of the intelligent driving market.
Report Link：2024 Global Intelligent Driving Forecast
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