The future of quantum computing: predictions for 2024 and beyond

The year 2024 is expected to mark a significant year for quantum computing technology as the field transitions from physical bits to error-correcting logic bits and global collaboration in quantum research increases.

In November 2023, Atom Computing announced the launch of a 1,225-qubit quantum computer, nearly triple the size of the previous leading IBM Osprey computer. This leap amplifies the potential of quantum computing to revolutionize fields like pharmaceuticals and cybersecurity, enabling unimaginably complex calculations.

In December, at Quantum Summit 2023, IBM unveiled cutting-edge devices, including the 1,121-qubit IBM Quantum Condor chip, and the 133-qubit Heron Quantum Processing Unit (QPU)-IBM's first utility-grade quantum processor and is IBM's entry into the era of mass access to quantum processing units.

Also in late 2023, researchers from Harvard, MIT, and other top institutions have found a way to improve error correction that could advance the time when we'll need quantum-resistant cryptography: it has the largest number (48) of logical quantum bits ever, and the processor can run up to 280 physical quantum bits.

If other researchers are able to replicate and develop their research in the future, this means that quantum computers could be in our lives sooner than expected - there's no telling how much sooner.

On top of that, in 2023, Russian physicists unveiled a 16-bit quantum computer, an Imperial College team performed a groundbreaking double-slit experiment in the time domain, Scott Aaronson took a quantum information science exam on the state-of-the-art large-scale language model, GPT-4, and received a grade of B, and Intel unveiled a 12-bit silicon quantum research chip Tunnel Falls ......

Quantum computing is moving out of the basement labs of university physics departments and into industrial R&D organizations; related initiatives are strongly supported by multinational corporations and venture capitalists.

Contemporary quantum computing prototypes built by IBM, Google, IonQ, Rigetti, and others are still some way from perfection.

Today's machines are small, error-prone, and in the so-called "Noisy Intermediate Scale Quantum Computing" (NISQ) stage of development. The delicate nature of tiny quantum systems means that they are susceptible to multiple sources of error, and correcting these errors is a major technical hurdle.

A large-scale quantum computer capable of correcting its own errors is the "holy grail". A large number of research organizations and commercial enterprises are pursuing this goal through different technological approaches.

So let's explore: what does the future hold for quantum technology?

Quality of quantum bits is better than quantity

John Prisco argues that the quantum computer market will shift in 2024 away from obsessing over the concepts of quantum dominance and raw bit count. Instead, the industry will move towards solving more critical error-correction problems and practical problem-solving applications.

"It is expected that quantum computing giants will shift their focus to logical quantum bit counts, prioritizing the quality of quantum bits over the sheer quantity that previously dominated the discussion."

Unfortunately, while 2024 may not bring a decisive consolidation of quantum computer design paradigms, this uncertainty challenges the overall growth and focus of the industry.

"The quantum computer market is expected to see the elimination of one current paradigm, meaning that a concentration of development focus will not be achieved in 2024, a bad sign as the industry struggles to transition from headline-grabbing feats to tangible real-world impact."

The shift from a purely digital game to an emphasis on error correction and functional applications signals the maturation of the field. The shift, while fraught with uncertainty, is a pivotal moment.

The hackers will "store the data for later decryption."

"As the industry struggles to translate theoretical capabilities into real-world applications, another looming issue emerges: the impact of quantum computing on data security, and in particular, how hackers could use this nascent technology to store today's encrypted data for decryption tomorrow."

Fred Rivain, CTO of Dashlane, offers a timely warning about the speed at which quantum technology is advancing, and that anti-quantum encryption methods are no longer optional.

The looming threat of quantum computers cracking current encryption standards, such as RSA or ECC encryption algorithms, underscores the need for organizations of all sizes in all industries to assess the risks they may face and migrate to post-quantum encryption today.

"The risk to organizations and companies is real: hackers are likely already trying to steal, hoard and store encrypted data with the hope of cracking it in the future."

Next year, NIST is expected to announce a "fourth round" of standardized post-quantum algorithms that will be integrated into key cryptographic libraries such as libsodium so that all developers can use them.

While pioneers such as Cloudflare and Signal have already initiated real-world applications, wider adoption remains a long-term prospect. Despite the White House's push, the impetus for change may require a Y2K-like event.

Rebecca Krauthammer, co-founder and chief product officer of QuSecure, also warned that as quantum computing evolves, the threat landscape can be expected to change.

"With the development of quantum computing and AI-driven attacks, a new breed of cyber threat will emerge. Cybersecurity teams will be tasked with defending not just against traditional malware and exploits, but also quantum-oriented 'save-as-you-go' attacks, adversarial machine learning strategies, and AI-driven social engineering schemes."

This will require cybersecurity professionals to have a broader skill set and use more advanced defense tools and platforms.

Misconceptions about quantum computing

There are many misconceptions about quantum computing, and Tony Uttley, President and COO of Quantinuum, points out that quantum computers are not ten or fifteen years away.

"We have quantum computers right now that can do things that classical computers can't do. Another misconception is that quantum computers can only do one thing."

Utley explains that while the primary focus of quantum computing development has been on commercial applications, the technology has inadvertently become a game changer for complex scientific challenges.

For example, condensed matter and high-energy physics problems, which are typically the purview of organizations such as CERN and projects such as the Large Hadron Collider, can now be tackled in ways that were previously thought impossible.

"Human history has taught us that if brilliant people are given incredible tools, they will find things to do with them. We're seeing that play out in real time."

Essentially, quantum computing has become a transformative tool for fleshing out theoretical concepts and providing a new perspective on our understanding of the universe.

"I'm excited that quantum computing dispels the myths that 'quantum computing won't be realized for another decade' and that 'quantum computing can only solve one thing'."

What industries will be affected?

So what industries will quantum computing impact?

Financial services, megabanks and trading firms use quantum capabilities to optimize portfolios and enhance fraud detection. The pharmaceutical industry is focusing on quantum computing for efficient drug discovery. Meanwhile, sustainability-focused companies are exploring new materials science, as exemplified by the work of BMW and Airbus on hydrogen fuel cells.

"Quantum computing also promises to revolutionize regulated industries from healthcare to aviation, providing much-needed transparency and traceability to AI algorithms and alleviating the 'black box' problem in AI decision-making."

However, the risks are as great as the rewards. A major issue is data encryption, as algorithms such as Shore's algorithm suggest that quantum computing has the potential to break existing encryption methods. This poses not only technical challenges, but also ethical considerations about how the technology should be utilized for the greater good, while ensuring security.

What is the future of quantum?

Quantum computing is not a futuristic concept; it is a current reality with key milestones on the near horizon. One immediate milestone is that quantum machines are outperforming even the world's most advanced supercomputers in simulation tasks, thus ushering us into an era in which classical computing cannot simulate quantum capabilities.

As for preparation, Tony Uttley, president and COO of Quantinuum, advises business and government leaders to keep an eye on quantum technology's burgeoning presence in areas such as cybersecurity and high-energy physics.

"We will begin to see quantum technology move into all areas that affect our daily lives. We may never have access to a quantum computer ourselves, but it could be an app that you're running on your phone that travels across the world and into a quantum computer and does something."

Like the early stages of the Internet and classical computing, quantum computing will start with niche applications but promises to become ubiquitous, cleverly powering tasks on everyday devices like cell phones.

Right now, well-known companies such as Google, IBM, Quantinuum, IonQ and Rigetti are working to improve their quantum offerings, focusing on error correction and making them suitable for data center use. Some companies are also creating user-friendly software and tools for developers to access quantum resources. It's not hard to guess that as quantum hardware evolves, those companies that are the first to develop useful tools for the abstraction layer will be in a favorable position.

Challenges faced ......

On the one hand, quantum computing opens up the prospect of groundbreaking research in fields such as medicine, materials science and cryptography, serving as a catalyst for innovation and pushing the boundaries of what we think is possible with computing. On the other hand, the disruptive potential of this technology also raises critical questions about data security, ethical implementation and the digital divide.

"As quantum capabilities skyrocket, we face an urgent need to invest in error correction mechanisms and focus on the quality of quantum bits rather than just the digital advantage."

Ignoring these intricacies could result in the power of quantum computing either being underutilized or misused, putting the future in jeopardy. Therefore, a thoughtful, ethical and multidisciplinary approach that combines technological prowess with regulatory foresight is needed for the journey ahead.

"Quantum computing could disrupt the current encryption paradigm, requiring an overhaul of cybersecurity protocols."

Additionally, the technology is still in its infancy and needs to address issues such as quantum bit stability and error correction, as well as high barriers to entry in terms of cost. Moving into 2024, business leaders must balance the transformative potential of quantum computing with the risks and operational challenges that exist.

As we move from the era of classical computing to a quantum future, business leaders and policymakers must adopt a balanced and informed strategy that weighs the enormous benefits and existential challenges that quantum computing will inevitably bring.

"Quantum Leap" in 2024.

Yuval Boger, chief marketing officer at QuEra Computing, predicts a major shift in the field of quantum computing in 2024.

"Foremost among these is the transition from the era of physical quantum bits to the era of error-correcting logic quantum bits, marking a leap to more stable and reliable quantum computing."

Borg also believes that this will coincide with the increasing integration of quantum processors into high-performance computing (HPC) centers, creating a hybrid computing landscape that leverages the unique capabilities of both classical and quantum machines.

"At the same time, we will see European countries opening up their national quantum programs to U.S.

suppliers. This collaborative stance is being taken because we recognize that a more global approach is necessary to be at the forefront of quantum technology development."

The best quantum technology in France is not necessarily the "best quantum technology". The same logic could easily apply to other countries, such as Germany, the UK, Finland, etc. In the quantum field, partnerships between countries will be strengthened, and NATO's relationship with quantum will grow closer.

Mergers will create growth opportunities for existing quantum companies and more opportunities for neutral atom companies. Quantum hardware and software companies will find the merger beneficial to synergize their capabilities.

Quantum control companies will face new challengers as the market becomes more competitive. We will be a year closer to "massive" and everyone will be amazed at what has been accomplished.

Currently, multiple roadmaps point to an indisputable demonstration of useful "quantum superiority" in 2024. "We expect this demonstration to be in the area of computational chemistry, for use cases related to pharmaceuticals or materials engineering, where the convergence of AI and quantum computing, which has already formally begun in 2023, will continue to evolve, and where we will see quantum technologies increasingly used to improve current generative models." Niels Nielsen, founding partner of 2XN, said, "On the sensing side, we will see more companies utilizing quantum sensors for clear and valuable use cases.2024 will also be an important year for quantum anti-counterfeiting security, with standards, regulations, and recommendations becoming clearer, fostering the development of some approaches and requiring other approaches to adapt."

Enthusiasm for 2024 is not limited to computing, but also includes emerging quantum technologies such as true quantum networks that lay the groundwork for quantum invisible state transfer. Quantum metrology and sensing technologies will also take center stage, revolutionizing fields such as medical imaging, biomagnetic field research, geophysics, materials research and navigation through precise magnetic field measurements.

-‍ Quantum sensors will lead the way to space, and quantum algorithms will provide insight into the human body, explore the design of fusion reactors, and guide new approaches to artificial intelligence.

Perhaps next year, quantum sensing will outpace quantum computing in terms of speed of development and commercialization, says Quantum Exponential's Stuart Woods: "Startups such as QLM, Delta g, Aquark Technologies, and Cerca Magnetics Companies have already made impressive progress in this area, and next year we can expect to see the first quantum sensors cleared by the FDA and tested in smart infrastructure."

As the technology matures, the coming year has the potential for breakthroughs in a variety of disciplines. While the opportunity space increases, the risk space also becomes more concrete. There will be greater awareness of quantum threats, and more and more organizations will be developing and deploying their mitigation strategies to enable quantum-safe cybersecurity solutions.

After a downturn in 2023, the number of quantum startups is predicted to grow moderately in 2024, driven by technological advances, strategic developments, and increased investment in the foundational elements of quantum computing.

From these perspectives alone, the outlook for quantum computing in 2024 should be very exciting.

As 2024 approaches, quantum computing will soon have a game-changing moment that will affect us all. Think faster drug discovery or unbreakable codes; that's the good side. But there's a bad side too: current cybersecurity is easy to crack, and the technology is still rudimentary, often both expensive and difficult to use.

As we move from the computing world of the past into this exciting yet unpredictable quantum era, business and government leaders must be both cautious and smart. They must both embrace the giant leaps and prepare for the potential pitfalls. Simply put, quantum computing offers a world of extraordinary possibilities, but we must learn to use it wisely.

[7]‍https://thequantuminsider.com/2023/12/27/top-predictions-in-quantum-for-2024/