Cybersecurity in the age of quantum computing 6 years, 260 days, 21 hours, 9 minutes left
Leaps in quantum technology and hybrid approaches are shortening the time to Q-Day, when adversaries can use quantum computing to break encryption and threaten the data security of all organizations. It's hard to predict exactly when this will happen. But given the speed at which quantum computing is evolving, experts agree that organizations need to start implementing post-quantum defenses now.
- So far, there are no massive quantum computers that can break encryption algorithms, but we know they are coming. Because of the time it takes to implement and release defenses, businesses should act now to address this threat.
- European companies should start by developing a post-quantum-era security strategy, migration roadmap and a course on cryptographic agility, the ability to easily migrate from one algorithm to another. The quantum threat makes crypto agility the recommended choice for post-quantum crypto transitions. And, given that we expect these algorithms to continue to evolve, it is equally important to maintain cryptographic agility even after that.
- If European businesses wait too long to complete their migration, they may pay a high price or even disappear without being able to secure and protect their data.
Today's hyper-connected world of trade and finance is built on the trust that digital information is protected and can be stored and exchanged securely across the globe. However, even as cyberattacks become more sophisticated and the security environment becomes more difficult to navigate, a new and more worrisome threat is on the horizon: the potential for quantum computers to break encryption.
Quantum computers would bring many benefits, but they would also pose a serious threat to today's digital security because they would be able to break down digital factors into prime numbers at a much faster rate than traditional computers.
How imminent is this threat?
On January 4, 2023, a group of Chinese scientists claimed to be able to break RSA encryption (a public-key cryptosystem widely used for secure data transmission) using a quantum computer with only 372 quantum bits.
RSA-based encryption makes it possible to exchange data through the cloud, provide digital products and services, and communicate with customers; ECC-based encryption secures Internet of Things communications. Experts estimate that it would take a classical computer 300 trillion years to accomplish this task. After 48 hours of tension, when the companies felt vulnerable and unprotected, other international cryptographers discovered errors in the mathematical details. Although the method failed, it highlighted the international race and the ingenious new methods of decryption using early quantum computers, and emphasized the urgency of being quantum-ready.
Two proven algorithms, the Shor algorithm and the Grover algorithm, provide the mathematical basis for quantum computers to threaten current encryption techniques.The Shor algorithm can be used for asymmetric-key encryption, while the Grover algorithm can affect symmetric-key encryption. Both algorithms were developed in the 1990s, when quantum computers could only be implemented with pen on paper; it is only recently that quantum machines have become a reality, posing a real threat to businesses.
Currently, error-prone quantum computers are not yet capable of breaking encryption, but the technology is evolving so quickly that changes are expected soon.
Experts in post-quantum cryptography (PQC), led by mathematician Prof. Michele Mosca, estimate that it will take an average of 15 years for a quantum computer to break secure codes.
Michele Mosca
Prof. Mosca presents a useful framework to help organizations define their plans. In this framework, the urgency of initiating a migration depends on an organization's assessment of three simple parameters:
- A. Shelf life: the number of years for which business data must be protected.
- B. Migration timeframe: the number of years it will take to safely migrate business security systems.
- C. Threat timeframe: the number of years until the advent of large-scale quantum computers.
This simple theorem shows that if A+B > C, the organization is at risk.
Thus, the timeline for C is not set in stone: 2030 may be too early or too late, depending on how fast quantum computers develop.
Even if the threat seems unpredictable, businesses need to be prepared now. This is not only because we are seeing quantum getting closer, but also because there is a real danger that someone could store encrypted data today and then decrypt it when such quantum computers appear. Indeed, the uncertainty of the exact date makes it difficult for businesses to recognize the right time to take action.
How long do we have to worry? The Cloud Security Alliance (CSA) isn't wasting any time setting a countdown clock to 2030 as the effective date for Q-Day. At the time of writing, the CSA has 6 years, 260 days, 21 hours, and 9 minutes to migrate to quantum security.
Web site:
https://cloudsecurityalliance.org/research/working-groups/quantum-safe-security/
In all this "ambiguity," only one thing is certain: new encryption algorithms are needed to protect our systems from quantum threats.
Professor Mosca's theorem, published in 2015, was part of the rationale for the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) to begin identifying PQC algorithms that could protect data in the wake of quantum computers. After six years of careful consideration and several rounds of competition, NIST published four standardized candidate algorithms in 2022.
Post-quantum encryption algorithms announced by NIST in July 2022
On July 17, NIST published the complete list of submitters of additional signature algorithms for the first round of the PQC digital signature scheme: this list has seven classifications totaling 40 cryptographic algorithms.
Between now and 2024, NIST will continue to evaluate the technical considerations of the selected PQC algorithms while identifying alternatives in case advances in cryptanalysis threaten the long-term viability of these algorithms. Of these, lattice-based cryptography is favored because no one has yet developed a quantum algorithm that can break these cryptographic primitives (at least not yet).
Even if a fully published standard won't be available until 2024, companies shouldn't wait until then to start developing PQC roadmaps. Now that the initial recommendations have been published, companies should follow some common practices, make purchasing decisions, and develop specialized skills to avoid future pain.
So how do you do it?
- First, develop a well-thought-out strategy that understands the specifics of the business, risks and stakeholders.
- Second, pragmatically and efficiently discover every vulnerable instance of encryption that needs to be updated in the enterprise and all the related ecosystems and supply chains with which it interacts.
- Third, decide on a new encryption architecture.
- Fourth, begin testing, implementing and rolling out the new post-quantum security across the enterprise.
A robust and proven strategy can help organizations find the delicate balance needed between moving forward and carefully avoiding introducing new risks. pQc deployments should initially run in parallel with current encryption approaches, utilizing post-quantum technologies to add security to existing encryption systems (rather than dismantle them) as time and resources permit.
Cryptographic flexibility is optimal in the new paradigm that is so desperately needed to address quantum security challenges. Setting the course for cryptographic agility will enable organizations to easily change their approach to encryption as advances in cryptoanalysis threaten the viability of the systems they employ, as described in Accenture's latest article, The race to crypto-agility.
Reference link:
[1]https://cloudsecurityalliance.org/about/
[2]https://cloudsecurityalliance.org/artifacts/practical-preparations-for-the-post-quantum-world/
[3]https://csrc.nist.gov/Projects/pqc-dig-sig/round-1-additional-signatures
[4]https://cloudsecurityalliance.org/research/working-groups/quantum-safe-security/
[5]https://www.europeanbusinessreview.com/countdown-to-cybersecurity-in-the-quantum-era-will-businesses-be-ready-in-time/
