Global employment is severe, the quantum field may become a "blue ocean"

The past three years have seen a confluence of health, economic, and geopolitical upheavals, growing social and environmental pressures, and challenges. These accelerating changes have reshaped and will continue to reshape the world's labor markets, shaping the demand for the jobs and skills of the future, and driving divergent economic trajectories within and between countries, and between developing and advanced economies.

Left: The number of LinkedIn jobs is on the rise from 2018 to 2022; Right: The fastest growing jobs on LinkedIn from 2018 to 2022.

The fourth Industrial Revolution, changing worker and consumer expectations, and the urgent need for a green and energy transition are also redefining the sectoral composition of the workforce and stimulating demand for new occupations and skills.

On April 30, the World Economic Forum (WEF) released its Future of Jobs 2023 report, which explores how jobs and skills will evolve over the next five years. The survey brings together the views of 803 companies in 27 industrial clusters and 45 economies in all regions of the world, which together employ more than 11.3 million people.

The survey covers issues such as macro and technology trends for the period 2023-2027, their impact on employment, their impact on skills, and workforce transformation strategies that businesses plan to adopt.

The expected impact of macro trends on employment in 2023-2027. The proportion of organizations surveyed that expect each trend to create or displace jobs, in order of the net effect of job creation.

Over the next five years, technology adoption will remain a key driver of enterprise transformation. More than 85 percent of companies surveyed believe that increased adoption of new and cutting-edge technologies and expanded digital access are the trends most likely to drive business transformation. The wider application of environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards within companies will also have a significant impact. The next most influential trend is macroeconomic: rising living costs and slowing economic growth. The impact of investments driving the green transition was identified as the sixth most influential macro trend, followed by supply shortages and consumer expectations on social and environmental issues.

Respondents believe that the ongoing impact of COVID-19, heightened geopolitical divisions and the demographic dividend in developing and emerging economies, while still driving the transformation of nearly half of companies over the next five years, are at the bottom of the list of factors driving business growth.

Environmental, technological and economic trends have the greatest impact on job creation and destruction. Of the macro trends listed, firms predict that investments to promote green transformation in their companies, broader application of environmental, social and corporate governance standards, and more localized supply chains will have the strongest net job creation effects, although in each case job growth will be partially offset by job transfers.

Adaptation to climate change in developing and emerging economies and the demographic dividend are also important factors in net job creation. Through greater adoption of new and cutting-edge technologies and increased digital access, technological advances are expected to drive job growth at more than half of the companies surveyed, but one in five expect job losses. The net job creation effect places these two trends in sixth and eighth place, respectively. Slowing economic growth, supply shortages and rising input costs, as well as higher living costs for consumers, are the three main reasons for the expected net job losses.

Employers also recognize that rising geopolitical divisions and the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will drive labor market disruption: Employers are evenly split between those who expect these trends to have a positive impact on employment and those who expect them to have a negative impact on employment.

Left: Technology adoption, percentage of organizations likely to adopt technology in the next five years (%); Right: 2023-2027, the net difference (%) in the percentage of organizations that expect technology adoption to create and displace jobs over the next five years. There are still a small number of companies pessimistic about the adoption of quantum technology, all companies agree that quantum technology will bring a net increase in jobs.

In terms of technology adoption, big data, cloud computing and artificial intelligence feature heavily in the likelihood of adoption. More than 75 percent of companies expect to adopt these technologies within the next five years.

The data also shows the impact of digitization of business and trade. Digital platforms and applications are the technologies most likely to be adopted by the companies surveyed, with 86 percent expecting to incorporate them into their business operations in the next five years. 75% of businesses are expected to adopt e-commerce and digital trade. The second-ranked technologies include education and workforce technologies, which 81 percent of businesses expect to adopt by 2027. Adoption of robotics, power storage technology, and distributed ledger technology are low on the list.

The expected impact of technology adoption on employment in 2023-2027. The percentage of organizations surveyed that expect each technology to create or displace jobs, in order of the net effect of job creation. 23.5 percent of companies surveyed agree that quantum computing will create jobs.

Over the next five years, the impact of most technologies on employment is expected to be net positive. Big data analytics, climate change and environmental management technologies, and encryption and cybersecurity are expected to be the biggest drivers of job growth.

Agricultural technologies, digital platforms and applications, e-commerce and digital trade, and artificial intelligence are all expected to cause significant disruptions to the labor market, with a significant percentage of companies expecting job losses within their organizations, but offset by job growth elsewhere, resulting in a net gain. Over the next five years, all but two technologies - humanoid robots and non-humanoid robots - will create net jobs. Employers expect 23% structural job losses in the labor market over the next five years. This can be interpreted as a composite measure of disruption, made up of both jobs created and jobs lost. In this year's Future of Jobs Survey, respondents expect above-average job losses in supply chain, transportation, and media, entertainment, and sports, while lower-than-average job losses are expected in manufacturing and consumer goods retail and wholesale.

Of the 673 million jobs predicted in the WEF report's data set, respondents expect structural job growth of 69 million and a decline of 83 million. That equates to a net loss of 14 million jobs, or 2 percent of current employment.

The human-machine boundary has shifted, and companies have been slower to introduce automation into their operations than previously expected. It is estimated that 34% of business-related tasks are currently performed by machines, with the remaining 66% performed by humans. That's just a 1% increase from the level of automation estimated by respondents to the 2020 edition of the Future of Work Survey - an almost negligible increase. This rate of automation runs counter to 2020 survey respondents' expectations that almost half (47%) of business tasks will be automated within the next five years. Today, respondents have scaled back their expectations for future automation: 42% of business tasks are expected to be automated by 2027; The rate of task automation in 2027 is expected to range from 35% for reasoning and decision making to 65% for information and data processing.

While expectations of machines replacing manual and manual labor have declined, reasoning, communication, and coordination - traits in which humans have a comparative advantage - will become more automated in the future. Ai is a key driver of potential algorithmic replacement, expected to be adopted by nearly 75% of surveyed companies and will lead to high attrition rates: 50% of organizations expect AI to lead to job growth and 25% expect AI to lead to job loss. Macro trends and technology adoption will drive job growth and loss in specific areas:

Currently, the fastest growing jobs relative to their size are driven by technology, digitization, and sustainability. Most of the fastest growing jobs are technology-related. Among the fastest growing jobs, AI and machine learning specialists topped the list, followed by sustainability specialists, business intelligence analysts, and information security analysts. Renewable energy engineers and solar installation and systems engineers are relatively fast growing positions because the economy is shifting toward renewable energy.

The fastest declining jobs relative to their current size are driven by technology and digitalization. Most of the fastest declines will be in clerical or secretarial positions, with bank tellers and related clerks, postal service clerks, cashiers and ticket clerks, and data entry clerks projected to decline the most.

Jobs in education, agriculture, and digital commerce and trade are expected to grow substantially. Jobs in the education sector are expected to grow by about 10 percent, with 3 million more jobs for vocational education teachers and college and higher education teachers. Jobs for agricultural professionals, especially farm equipment operators, are expected to increase by about 30 percent, resulting in 3 million additional jobs. About 4 million digital jobs are expected to grow, such as e-commerce specialists, digital transformation specialists, and digital marketing and strategy specialists.

The biggest losses are expected in administrative positions as well as traditional security, factory and business positions. The agencies surveyed forecast that by 2027, there will be 26 million fewer record-keeping and administrative jobs, including tellers and ticket clerks, mainly due to digitalization and automation; Data entry, accounting, bookkeeping and payroll clerks; As well as administrative and executive secretaries.

In the WEF report, employers estimate that 44 percent of workers will have their skills disrupted over the next five years. Cognitive skills reported the fastest growth in importance, reflecting the growing importance of complex problem solving in the workplace. Companies surveyed said the importance of creative thinking is growing slightly faster than analytical thinking, with technical literacy being the third fastest growing core skill. In terms of the rate of growth in the importance of skills reported by businesses, self-efficacy skills are higher than working with others skills. The social emotional attitudes that companies say are growing most in importance are curiosity and lifelong learning; Resilience, flexibility and agility; As well as motivation and self-awareness.

Core skills for 2023.

The changing skills landscape for 2023-2027

Systems thinking, artificial intelligence and big data, talent management, and service orientation and customer service topped the top 10 growth skills. While respondents saw no net decline in skills, a significant number of companies saw reading, writing, and math, global citizenship, sensory processing, and hand flexibility, endurance, and precision as declining in importance to employees. Six out of 10 workers will need to be trained by 2027, but only half of workers currently have access to proper training. The top priority for skills training 2023-2027 is analytical thinking, accounting for an average of 10% of training programs. The second priority for workforce development is the promotion of creative thinking, which will be the subject of an 8% upskilling programme. Training employees to take advantage of AI and big data ranks third among corporate skills training priorities over the next five years, with 42 percent of surveyed companies listing it as a priority.

Respondents are confident in the development of their existing workforce, but are not optimistic about the prospects for talent supply over the next five years. As a result, companies cite skills gaps and inability to attract talent as major barriers to industry transformation. In this regard, 48 percent of organizations believe that improving talent promotion and promotion processes is a key business practice to improve the availability of talent in their organizations, ahead of offering higher salaries (36 percent) and providing effective retraining and upskilling (34 percent).

Companies surveyed said investing in learning and on-the-job training, as well as process automation, were the most common workforce strategies adopted to achieve organizational business goals. Four out of five respondents expect to implement these strategies in the next five years. Workforce development is generally considered the responsibility of workers and managers, and 27% of training is expected to be provided by on-the-job training and mentoring, 23% by in-house training departments, and 16% by employer-sponsored apprenticeships. To close the skills gap, respondents are expected to reject external training programs in favor of company-led training programs.

This year's Future of Jobs Report offers a mixed outlook for the global Labour market in 2023-2027. Global macro trends and disruptions have created an increasingly complex environment for policymakers, employers and workers, where uncertainty and volatility remain high. Thus, while gloomy predictions about the impact of the green transition and AI on jobs grabbed headlines in early 2023, these areas were also seen by respondents as the biggest drivers of job creation in the future.

While this report finds that the global employment outlook is net negative for the second time since its publication, these misalignments are likely to be highly concentrated in a set of identifiable job categories, enabling targeted support and aggressive redeployment strategies. While the skills disruption is still serious, it has stabilized compared to the COVID-19 pandemic. While companies continue to identify access to skilled talent as the biggest barrier to business transformation, expectations for workforce strategies are increasingly nuanced, pragmatic, and engaged.

Hesitation and pessimism aside, job seekers can also focus more on emerging technology industries - artificial intelligence, cloud technology, big data...... Take quantum computing, for example: Companies like Microsoft, Google, and IBM are seeking to "open source" quantum talent; Top companies are racing to address the quantum skills gap to build a diverse workforce.

Now, the quantum computing industry is booming and is expected to generate nearly $700 billion in value by 2035, but a shortage of skilled workers threatens to stall this progress. Currently, there is only one qualified quantum candidate for every three quantum job openings. According to McKinsey research, the situation is expected to gradually worsen: by 2025, less than 50% of quantum computing jobs will even be filled.

There is only one qualified quantum candidate for every three quantum job openings

According to the World Economic Forum (WEF), more than half of quantum companies are currently looking to hire, but struggle to find candidates with the right skills. The agency warns that a lot of quantum talent will be needed in the next 20 years: quantum technology-related startups have already emerged in countries around the world.

Now, we are on the cusp of a new "quantum age" whose potential applications and career opportunities will be virtually limitless.

Quantum talent pyramid

In summary, the consensus is that in the next five to seven years, until 2030, this field will need thousands of workers: people with traditional software development experience, people who are good at creating control electronics, people who have experience working in RF electronics in the lab, and people with traditional electrical engineering backgrounds... Both are badly needed.

Job seekers can also build the habit of lifelong learning and embrace a new "industrial revolution" when the economic cycle changes.