Financial Times The hype of quantum computing is fading
Are today's basic quantum computers on the verge of major achievements beyond the reach of traditional computers? Or are their capabilities overstated because the practical uses of the technology will only be realized in the future?
Four years ago, John Preskill, a professor of theoretical physics at Caltech, predicted that quantum systems would begin to perform well and possibly have commercial uses once they reached a scale of 50-100 quantum bits; but that moment has come and gone without quantum systems showing any clear superiority. More than a year ago, IBM announced a 127-quantum-bit computer, and in November 2022 it was announced that a new 433-quantum-bit processor would be available in the first quarter of 2023.
In response, Preskill is being more cautious. He said, "I expect that for practical applications of significant commercial value, we will have to wait for fault-tolerant quantum computers that can correct errors." That may be a long way off, he added, but today's quantum systems still have scientific merit.
One reason hopes are dashed is that new ways have been found to program classical computers to handle tasks that classical computers once struggled to handle.
This has pushed back quantum development and delayed the moment when building quantum systems achieves superiority, said Oskar Painter, head of quantum hardware for Amazon's cloud computing division.
After years of rising expectations, the technology's lack of practical use has led some experts to warn of a potential "quantum winter": a period when disappointment in a new technology leads to waning interest for several years. The term is borrowed from the artificial intelligence "winters" of the 1970s and 1980s, when promising avenues of research proved to be dead ends, leaving the field long behind.
"People are worried that this is going to be very harsh," Painter said, but any short-term chill is unlikely to hit long-term research funding.
Waning hopes for the early benefits of quantum computing have already led to a sharp drop in the stocks of a handful of companies that have ridden a wave of enthusiasm for the industry to IPO since mid-2021. Based on their respective highest share prices shortly after going public: the combined value of Arqit, IonQ, D-Wave and Rigetti reached $12.5 billion; shortly after, that number dropped to $1.4 billion. In last year's crackdown on quantum companies, IonQ was slammed by a short-seller's report: claiming its technology didn't live up to the hype; and Rigetti's founder, Chad Rigetti, resigned as CEO before quitting the company at the end of the year.
Constantin Gonciulea, Wells Fargo's chief technology officer for advanced technology, said part of the problem facing the industry is excessive "hype" about the technology. He compared the build-up of expectations around quantum to the cryptocurrency industry, as many non-experts have been drawn to the field and the promise of the technology has far outstripped its potential in the short term.
Nonetheless, companies working on the first quantum machines and software insist that practical applications of the technology are just around the corner; at the same time, they continue to be careful to avoid making too precise predictions about the exact timing.
https://www.ft.com/content/d64e45b4-692a-429e-bc64-146303ec7fdf
