Quantum Computing, Can the U.S. Stop China

Introduction: This article is compiled from Tech Monitor's Afiq Fitri's article "Can the US stop China's rise in quantum computing?

The old adage, "If you can't change the rules, change the game," is exactly what quantum computing can do for society. When a machine becomes powerful enough to reach quantum supremacy, it has the potential to change the world. Today, there is a war going on between China and the United States to see who gets there first: The United States is using its dominance in classical computing to gain an advantage.

Last week, the United States launched its latest salvo against China in a hair-trigger tech war between the two countries. According to Bloomberg [1], the White House is mulling new export controls aimed at restricting China's access to artificial intelligence and quantum technology and equipment. But whether the U.S. will be able to effectively curb China and its rise in quantum computing remains an open question when China's advantage in quantum computing appears to be shrinking.

01Export Controls on Quantum Technology: "The Real Deepening Divide"

Quantum computing has the potential to change the way we create new materials and understand the universe

The news of quantum-related restrictions comes on the heels of another round of export controls announced earlier this month, when the U.S. cut off China's access to the U.S.-made technology needed to make high-end logic and memory chips. There are few details about these new export controls on quantum computing, and no indication that specific technologies will be targeted. But a U.S. government list of critical and emerging technologies that could be subject to export controls suggests that this could include materials, isotopes and manufacturing technologies for quantum devices, post-quantum cryptography, and technologies involving quantum sensing and networking. If these export controls are approved, it would mark an escalation in the U.S.-China technology war and a more aggressive stance on quantum computing competition.

In May, the White House issued a memo directing U.S. federal agencies to ensure the country remains a global leader in quantum information science, but without explicitly mentioning China. The memo did, however, outline the security implications of adversaries gaining an edge in quantum computing, specifically regarding how "cryptanalysis-related quantum computers (CRQC)" would be able to crack public-key passwords for U.S. digital systems. When it is available, Biden said, "CRQC could compromise civilian and military communications, disrupt critical infrastructure oversight and control systems, and undermine security protocols for most Internet-based financial transactions."

Todd R. Weiss, an analyst at Futurum Research, believes these new quantum-related export controls will represent a "really deepening divide" between the United States and China. These are two countries that have little trust in each other on a wide range of issues, and the potential power of quantum computing could create very many new problems for the United States," he said. So, of course, the U.S. wants to use that technology to provide safeguards and protection if it can."

02China is investing heavily in quantum science

But after years of targeted policies aimed at strengthening China's domestic capabilities, it is debatable whether the United States can meaningfully halt China's progress in quantum computing. There is evidence that the horse has bolted. In May 2021, a group of Chinese quantum scientists led by Pan Jianwei reportedly developed a superconducting quantum processor called Zuchongzhi, which is a million times faster than Google's quantum computer Sycamore on a given problem. Seven months later, Chinese quantum scientists developed a quantum computer called "Jiuzhang II", tailored to handle specific problems, which is 100 trillion (1017) times faster than a normal supercomputer.

That China has made such a breakthrough despite existing export controls suggests that it is well prepared for future foreign blockades of key technologies, or at least keen to maintain the appearance of being able to do so.

The large amount of money China has invested in quantum computing certainly suggests that it is on the path to self-sufficiency. According to a McKinsey report released earlier this year, China now surpasses its Western competitors in terms of public funding to promote quantum computing research. China has invested about $15 billion in the effort, compared to $7 billion in the European Union and the United States, which will allocate $2 billion from the recently passed "Chip and Science Act.

China's quantum investment exceeds the amount of public funding planned by its competitors in billions of dollars (USD); U.S. funding includes estimated funding for quantum computing in the recently passed Chip and Science Act. Source: McKinsey

Most of China's funding has been allocated to building massive research centers across the country. In Hefei, the capital of Anhui province, a "Center of Excellence for Quantum Information and Quantum Physics"[2] - modeled after Einstein's quantum equation for light E=hv - is reportedly under construction and will be completed soon (editor's note: it is now topped out); in eastern China A "Quantum Valley" [3] is also being planned in Jinan, China, with the aim of being operational by 2025.

hv modeling at the Hefei Quantum Lab

In addition to these publicly funded research centers, the intertwined relationships between academia, the private sector and the public sector are a key node in China's progress in quantum computing.

Tech Monitor has previously reported on the blurred lines between academia and the state in China, and how the former is playing a key role in the country's technological dominance. Academician Liu Jiangchuan, founder of edge computing service provider Jiangxing Intelligence, explains [4], "There is also a realization that academia should work with industry to actually deploy real-world systems and have their work integrated into industrial products. That's why in recent years you've seen Chinese universities start to actively participate in the development of industrial products, and you see many university professors working in the private sector as advisors, CEOs, or chief scientists."

03Circumventing Western export controls and other restrictions, China's quantum technology products and capabilities gain traction

This is also revealed by how state agencies and academia are working together to circumvent Western export controls and other restrictions. According to the Quantum Computing Report [5], China's Ministry of Science and Technology explicitly describes it as a key goal in its final 2020 budget document, which refers to the need to "provide methodological support to break through foreign patent blockades and break technology monopolies. However, despite these long-term preparations, there is no doubt that U.S. export controls have already started to "bite.

Following news of impending restrictions on quantum computing exports to China, the Financial Times reported [6] that Chinese chipmaker Changjiang Storage Technology Co. has asked its core U.S. employees to leave their jobs in order to comply with the new rules. Earlier this week, official Chinese customs data also showed [7] that chip imports fell 12.4% in September to total 47.6 billion chips; compared to 54.3 billion chips in September 2021; data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics also showed that domestic chip production fell 16.4% year-on-year to 26.1 billion chips.

Quantum-related imports have not been spared either. According to CEIC data, China's such imports fell sharply in August 2022 compared to their peak in November last year. While it's hard to know exactly why this decline is happening, one factor "could certainly include an increase in China's own quantum technology products and capabilities.

Trading volume of quantum-related imports from September 2021 to August 2022: China's quantum imports have steadily declined since last year. Source: China Europe International Business School (CEIC Daata)

04The US may continue to ramp up in the future

Looking ahead, it is an open question whether these export controls on quantum-related technologies will limit China's dominance in the field, but past examples of similar restrictions on key technologies provide a window into the difficulties of the monitoring process.

In 2015, the Obama administration blocked U.S. chipmaker Intel from selling its Xeon chips to Chinese entities, such as the National University of Defense Technology. But while this ended direct sales by U.S. companies to the Chinese military, it "does nothing to stop indirect sales to shell companies that help the Chinese military evade export controls," Gregory Allen, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Artificial Intelligence Governance Program, has said.

Despite these restrictions, the aforementioned Chinese universities have not only built new, advanced supercomputers, which still use Intel's Xeon chips [8]. As such, compliance is critical to any U.S. effort to curb China's rise in quantum computing, says Todd R. Weiss: "Their effectiveness will be based on the specifics of the language in these rules, and certainly on how the U.S. monitors China's compliance. I think compliance is a huge necessity, and it may be difficult to measure compliance in any country, especially China."

Reference Links：

[1]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-20/us-eyes-expanding-china-tech-ban-to-quantum-computing-and-ai?leadSource=uverify%20wall

[2]https://twitter.com/HefeiChina/status/1267420377556217856

[3]https://www.jn-rencai.com/foreign/innovateBase?xuxian=value13

[4]https://techmonitor.ai/technology/networks/what-chinas-lead-in-edge-computing-means-for-the-world

[5]https://quantumcomputingreport.com/how-much-money-has-china-already-invested-into-quantum-technology/

[6]https://www.ft.com/content/97147102-a02c-48df-b3a0-28c77c4c298f

[7]https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-chip-imports-drop-124-year-on-year-september-govt-data-2022-10-24/#:~:text=In%20the%20first%20nine%20months,in%20China%20to%20stockpile%20supplies.

[8]https://www.top500.org/system/177999/