McKinsey report How can quantum computing save the planet
On May 19, McKinsey released the latest report: "Quantum Computing May Save the Planet". Emerging quantum computing technologies could revolutionize the fight against climate change, transform the decarbonized economy, and be a major factor in limiting global warming to the 1.5°C target, the report says: roughly 7 gigatons per year by 2035 (1 Gt = 1 Gt) additional CO2 impact.
Although the technology is in the early stages of development. However, experts estimate that the first generation of fault-tolerant quantum computing will arrive in 2025-2030. This means that technological breakthroughs are accelerating, investment money is pouring in, and startups are proliferating. Quantum computing could help reduce emissions in challenging or emissions-intensive fields, such as agriculture or direct air capture, and could accelerate improvements in technologies needed at scale, such as solar panels or batteries. McKinsey describes some of the breakthroughs the technology could bring, and tries to quantify the impact of quantum computing technologies that will be available in the next decade.
Quantum computing can bring about step-change changes across the economy, which will have a huge impact on carbon reduction and carbon removal, including helping to address persistent sustainability issues such as curbing methane from agriculture, reducing cement production, improving electric power Batteries for cars, developing better renewable solar technology, finding faster ways to reduce the cost of hydrogen to replace fossil fuels, and using green ammonia as a fuel and fertilizer.
For five key areas of decarbonization identified in the Climate Math Report, McKinsey identified use cases for quantum computing that could lay the groundwork for a net-zero economy. They predict that the use cases listed below could remove more than 7 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2 equivalent) per year from the atmosphere by 2035, or more than 150 gigatons cumulatively over the next 30 years, compared to current trajectories.
Quantum computing can bring about a step-change in the entire economy, which will have a huge impact on carbon emission reduction and carbon removal.
Shift 1: Realize the electrification of life
Batteries are a key element in achieving zero-carbon electrification. They are required to reduce CO2 emissions from transport and obtain grid-scale energy storage for intermittent energy sources such as solar cells or wind power.
Increasing the energy density of lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries can be applied to electric vehicles and energy storage at an affordable cost. In the past decade, however, innovation has stalled: battery energy density increased by 50% between 2011 and 2016, but only by 25% between 2016 and 2020, and is expected to increase by 25% between 2020 and 2025 It will only increase by 17% during the year.
Recent research has shown that quantum computing will be able to simulate battery chemistry in ways that are currently impossible: quantum computing could provide a better understanding of how electrolyte complexes are synthesized, help find alternative cathode/anode materials with the same properties and/or Breakthrough by eliminating battery separators.
Therefore, we can make batteries with energy densities higher than 50% for heavy duty electric vehicles, which can greatly advance their economic use; the carbon benefits of passenger electric vehicles will not be very large, as these vehicles are expected to be used in the first generation of quantum computers Cost parity is achieved in many countries before going live, but consumers may still enjoy cost savings. Additionally, higher density energy batteries could serve as grid-scale storage solutions. The impact on the world's power grid could be transformative. Solar energy is becoming economically competitive, but is challenged by its power generation profile. Halving the cost of grid-scale storage could make a big difference in the use of solar energy: modelling has shown that halving the cost of solar panels could increase its use in Europe by 25% by 2050, increasing the use of solar and batteries Halving costs could increase solar usage by 60%.
Estimation of solar power production in the EU under the quantum impact assumption: Quantum impact can be synergistic.
Shift 2: Adjusting Industrial Operations
Many sectors of the industry produce emissions that are either extremely expensive or logistically challenging.
Cement is a good example. During the kiln firing of clinker, a powder used to make cement, the raw material releases carbon dioxide. This process accounts for about two-thirds of cement emissions. Alternative cement-bound materials (or "clinker") could eliminate these emissions, but there is currently no well-established alternative to clinker that can significantly reduce emissions at an affordable cost.
There are many possible permutations of such a product, but it is time-consuming and expensive through trial and error. Quantum computing can help simulate theoretical material combinations to find a material that can overcome today’s challenges—durability, availability of raw materials, and weathering (in the case of alkali-activated binders). It is estimated that this will have an additional impact of 1 gigaton per year by 2035.
Shift 3: Decarbonization of electricity and fuels
1. Solar cells
Solar cells will be one of the key sources of electricity generation in a net zero economy. But even though they are getting cheaper, they are still far from their theoretical maximum efficiency.
Today's solar cells rely on crystalline silicon, which is around 20% efficient. Solar cells based on the crystal structure of peroxides, with theoretical efficiencies as high as 40%, may be a better choice. However, they present challenges: lack of long-term stability and, in some species, the potential for greater toxicity. Furthermore, the technology has not yet been mass-produced. Quantum computing can help address these challenges, allowing the precise simulation of peroxide structures using all combinations of different fundamental atoms and mixtures, leading to more efficient, durable and non-toxic solutions. If the theoretical efficiency increase can be achieved, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) will be reduced by 50%.
By simulating the impact of cheaper and more efficient quantum solar panels, we see large increases in usage in regions with lower carbon prices (e.g. China); European countries with high irradiance (Spain, Greece) or wind energy The same is true of a poor country (Hungary). As mentioned above, its impact is magnified when combined with cheap battery storage.
By 2035, this technology could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by an additional 0.4 gigatons.
2. Hydrogen
Hydrogen is widely recognized as a viable alternative to fossil fuels in many economic sectors, especially in industrial sectors where high temperatures are required and electrification is impossible or insufficient; or where hydrogen is required as a feedstock, such as steelmaking or ethylene production.
The price of green hydrogen (green hydrogen) is about 60% higher than that of natural gas before natural gas prices surge in 2022. But improving electrolysis technology could drastically reduce the cost of hydrogen. Polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolyzers separate water and are one way to make green hydrogen. Recently, they have been improved, but still face two main challenges:
First, they are not as efficient as they should be. In a laboratory setting, 'pulsing' current rather than continuously running current can improve efficiency, but we don't understand this well enough to make it work at scale.
Second, the electrolyzer has a delicate membrane: it allows the split hydrogen to pass from the anode to the cathode (but keeps the split oxygen out). In addition, they have catalysts that can speed up the entire process. Theoretically, the more efficient the catalyst, the more attrition it wears to the membrane; but this is not necessarily the case, and our understanding of the interaction is not yet sufficient to design better membranes and catalysts.
Quantum computing can help simulate the energy states of pulsed electrolysis to optimize the use of catalysts, which will improve efficiency. Quantum computing can also model the chemical composition of catalysts and membranes to ensure the most efficient interactions; and it can push the efficiency of the electrolysis process to 100 percent and reduce the cost of hydrogen by 35 percent. If combined with cheaper solar cells discovered by quantum computing (as described above), the cost of hydrogen could be reduced by 60%.
Level of cost reduction for green hydrogen: A combination of quantum computing innovations could bring the carbon price of hydrogen on par with natural gas by 2030.
Increased hydrogen usage due to these improvements could reduce CO2 emissions by an additional 1.1 gigatons by 2035.
3. Ammonia
Ammonia is the best-known fertilizer, but can also be used as a fuel, potentially making it one of the best decarbonization solutions for the world's ships. Today, it accounts for 2% of total global final energy consumption.
Currently, ammonia is made through the energy-intensive Haber-Bosch process using natural gas, and there are several options for making green ammonia, but they all rely on similar processes. For example, green hydrogen can be used as a feedstock, or carbon dioxide emissions from the process can be captured and stored. There are other potential approaches, such as nitrogenase bioelectrocatalysis: nitrogen fixation occurs naturally when plants take nitrogen directly from the air and nitrogenase catalyzes its conversion to ammonia. This method is attractive because it can be performed at room temperature and a pressure of 1 bar; by contrast, the Haber-Bosch process performs this process at a high pressure of 500°C, which consumes a lot of energy (in the form of natural gas).
Left: Green ammonia production using the Haber-Bosch process;
right: Green ammonia production using nitrogenase bioelectrocatalysis. Using nitrogenase to produce green ammonia requires less time and energy, and nitrogen fixation using nitrogenase is a less energy-intensive way to produce ammonia.
Artificially replicating nitrogen fixation requires overcoming challenges such as enzyme stability, oxygen sensitivity, and the low rate of ammonia production by nitrogenases. The concept works in the lab, but not at scale. Quantum computing can help to simulate the process of improving the stability of the enzyme, protecting it from oxygen, and increasing the ammonia production rate of the nitrogenase. This would reduce the cost by 67% compared to today's green ammonia produced through electrolysis, which would make green ammonia cheaper than conventionally produced ammonia. Such cost reductions would not only reduce the CO2 impact of agricultural ammonia production, but would also bring forward the break-even time for ammonia in shipping by a decade. In shipping, ammonia is expected to be the main decarbonization option.
Using quantum computing to facilitate cheaper green ammonia as a shipping fuel could save 0.4 gigatons of additional carbon dioxide by 2035.
Shift 4: Strengthening carbon capture and carbon sequestration activities
To achieve net zero emissions, carbon capture is required. Both types of carbon capture—point-source capture and direct-air capture—can be aided by quantum computing.
1. Point Source
Capture Point source carbon capture allows carbon dioxide to be captured directly from industrial sources such as cement or steel blast furnaces. But the vast majority of CO2 capture is too expensive to be feasible at present, mainly because of its high energy. One possible solution: novel solvents, such as water-soluble and heterogeneous solvents, which can offer lower energy requirements but are difficult to predict at the molecular level for the properties of potential materials.
Quantum computing promises to enable more precise modeling of molecular structures and the design of new, efficient solvents for a range of carbon dioxide sources, which could reduce the cost of the process by 30 to 50 percent.
This has great potential for decarbonization of industrial processes, which could lead to up to 1.5 gigatons of additional decarbonization per year, including cement. If the cement clinker approach described above is successful, this would still have an impact of 0.5 Gtpa due to fuel emissions. Additionally, alternative clinker may not be available in some regions.
2. Direct Air Capture
Direct air capture, which involves sucking carbon dioxide out of the air, is one way to address carbon removal. While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says this approach is necessary to achieve net-zero emissions, it is very expensive (now ranging from $250 to $600 per ton per day) and even more energy-intensive than point source capture.
Sorbents are best suited for efficient direct air capture, while the latest approaches, such as metal-organic frameworks (MOFs), have the potential to significantly reduce energy requirements and infrastructure capital costs. The MOF acts like a giant sponge (as small as a gram and as large as the surface area of a football field), absorbing and releasing carbon dioxide at temperature changes far below those of conventional technologies. Quantum computing can help advance research on novel adsorbents such as MOFs and address challenges arising from susceptibility to carbon dioxide-induced oxidation, water, and degradation.
New sorbents with higher adsorption rates could reduce technology costs to $100 per ton of CO2-equivalent capture. This could be a key threshold for uptake, and Microsoft has publicly announced that it expects to pay $100 per ton over the long term for the highest quality carbon removal.
This would result in an additional reduction of 0.7 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide per year by 2035.
Shift 5: Reforming food and forestry
20% of annual greenhouse gas emissions come from agriculture, with methane from cattle and dairy products a major contributor (7.9 GtCO2 based on 20-year global warming potential). Studies have shown that low-methane feed additives can effectively block up to 90% of methane emissions. However, the use of these additives in free-range livestock is particularly difficult.
Another solution is to produce an anti-methane vaccine that targets methane-derived antibodies. This approach has had some success in laboratory conditions, but in the cow's gut -- the tumult of gastric juices and food -- antibodies struggle to catch the right microbes. Quantum computing could speed up research to find the right antibodies through precise molecular simulations, rather than expensive and lengthy trial and error.
An additional 1 gigaton of carbon emissions could be saved annually by 2035, based on estimated uptake determined by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency data.
Another prominent use case in agriculture is the green ammonia discussed above as a fuel, and today's Haber-Bosch process uses a lot of natural gas. Using such an alternative process could increase the impact by 0.25 gigaton per year by 2035, replacing currently conventionally produced fertilizers.
Other Use Cases
There are many ways to apply quantum computing to the fight against climate change. Future possibilities include the identification of new heat storage materials, high-temperature superconductors as the basis for reducing power grid losses in the future, or to support simulations of nuclear fusion. Use cases are not limited to climate mitigation, for example, improving weather forecasts to provide more warnings for major climate events. But progress on these innovations will have to wait, as the first-generation machines won't be powerful enough to make such a breakthrough.
The leap in CO2 reduction could be a major opportunity for business. With a value of $3-5 trillion in sustainability, according to McKinsey research, climate investing is a priority for big companies. The use cases presented above represent significant shifts and potential disruptions in these areas, and they are associated with tremendous value from leading players.
However, quantum technology is still in its early stages and comes with risks associated with the development of cutting-edge technologies, as well as significant costs. Investor risk can be mitigated to some extent by employing technical experts to conduct in-depth investigations, co-investing with public entities or consortia, and investing in companies with various corporate interests tied together and providing the necessary experience to build and expand these ventures.
In addition, governments can also play an important role in creating programs in universities to nurture quantum talent and provide incentives for quantum innovation in climate. Especially for use cases that do not have a natural corporate partner today, such as disaster prediction, uneconomical use cases such as direct air capture. Governments can initiate more research projects, such as IBM's collaboration with the UK, IBM's collaboration with the Fraunhofer Society, the Dutch public-private partnership Quantum Delta, and the US-UK collaboration. By exploiting the sustainability of quantum computing, countries will accelerate green transitions, deliver on national commitments, and gain a head start in export markets; but even with these steps, the risks and expenses remain high.
Top: projected CO2 emissions; bottom: annual additional CO2 quantum impact reduction potential. Quantization technology could put the world back on track to net-zero emissions by 2050.
Here are some questions businesses and investors need to ask before making the leap to quantum computing:
1) Is quantum computing relevant to you?
Determine if there are use cases that can potentially disrupt your industry or investment and address your organization's decarbonization challenges. This paper highlights several categories of use cases to demonstrate the potential impact of quantum computing: more than 100 sustainability-related use cases have been identified where quantum computing can play an important role. Quickly identifying the use cases that apply to you and deciding how to address them is extremely valuable, as talent and capabilities will be scarce this decade.
2) If quantum computing is relevant to business interests, how to approach it now?
Once involved in quantum computing, establishing the right approach, mitigating risk, and securing access to talent and capabilities are key.
Because of the high cost of this research, companies can maximize their impact by partnering with other players along the value chain and pooling fees and talent. For example, major consumers of hydrogen might join forces with electrolyzer manufacturers to reduce costs and share value. These arrangements will require companies to figure out how to share innovation without losing a competitive advantage. Collaborations such as joint ventures or pre-competitive R&D would be an answer. Investors are willing to support such efforts to potentially de-risk some of the business. There is plenty of dedicated climate funding available, judging by the commitments made at COP26, which aim to meet the $100 billion annual spending target.
3) Do I have to start now?
While the first fault-tolerant quantum computers are still years away, it is important to start development work now. There is a lot of up-front work to be done to get the best return on the huge investment required to apply quantum computing.
Determining the exact parameters of a particular problem and finding the best application will mean collaboration between application experts and quantum computing technologists well-versed in algorithm development. It is estimated that algorithm development will take up to 18 months, depending on complexity; it will also take time to establish the value chain, production and market entry to ensure that they are ready when quantum computing can be deployed and that the value created from the fully benefit from it.
Quantum computing is a revolutionary technology that enables precise molecular-level simulations and a deeper understanding of the fundamental laws of nature. As this paper shows, its development in the coming years could help solve hitherto unsolvable scientific problems, and clearing these roadblocks could make the difference between a sustainable future and climate catastrophe.
Making quantum computing a reality will require a major integration of resources, expertise and funding. Only when governments, scientists, academia and investors work closely together in developing this technology will it be possible to meet the goal of limiting emissions, keeping global warming below 1.5°C, and saving the planet.
