The quantum technology arms race is heating up
Stuart Rollo, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Sydney, wrote[1] that quantum technologies exploiting surprising and often counterintuitive properties of the subatomic universe are revolutionizing the way information is collected, stored, shared and analyzed.
The commercial and scientific potential of the quantum revolution is enormous, but quantum technology is making the biggest waves in national security. Governments are by far the most important investors in quantum R&D. Quantum technology promises breakthroughs in weapons, communications, sensing and computing that could change the balance of military power in the world. The underlying strategic advantage has spurred a substantial increase in funding and R&D across countries in recent years.
The three key areas of quantum technology are computing, communication and sensing. In the United States and China in particular, all three are now seen as key parts of the struggle for economic and military supremacy.
The race is on
The threshold for developing quantum technology is not low. Only a few countries have the organizational capacity and technical know-how to compete.
While Russia, India, Japan, the European Union, and Australia have launched significant quantum R&D programs, China and the United States maintain a substantial lead in the new quantum race.
The quantum race is heating up. According to Deloitte's Quantum Computing: Hype or Reality? ” report that in 2015, the United States was the world’s largest investor in quantum technology, investing about $500 million. That investment has grown to nearly $2.1 billion by 2021. However, Chinese investment in quantum technology increased from $300 million to about $13 billion over the same period [2].
Both leaders, President Biden[3] and President Xi Jinping[4], have emphasized the importance of quantum technology as a key national security tool.
The U.S. federal government has established a “three-pillar model” for quantum research in which federal investment is allocated among civilian, defense, and intelligence agencies [5]. In China, information on quantum security projects is not transparent, but the People's Liberation Army supports quantum research through its own Academy of Military Sciences and through extensive funding programs to the wider scientific community [6].
Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping have each emphasised the importance of quantum technology.
Artificial intelligence and machine learning
Advances in quantum computing may drive leaps in artificial intelligence and machine learning [7].
This could improve the performance of lethal autonomous weapon systems (which can select and attack targets without human supervision). It will also make it easier to analyze large datasets used in defense intelligence and cybersecurity.
Improved machine learning could also bring significant advantages in conducting (and defending against) cyberattacks on civilian and military infrastructure.
The most powerful quantum computer [8] (to the authors’ knowledge) is made by the US company IBM, which works closely with the US defense and intelligence services [9].
Unhackable communication
Quantum communication systems can be absolutely secure and unbreakable. Quantum communication is also required for the networking of quantum computers, with the promise of exponentially increasing quantum computing power.
In this regard, China is clearly the global leader. A space-earth quantum communication network using terrestrial and satellite connections has connected Beijing, Shanghai, Jinan and Hefei [10].
China's emphasis on secure quantum communications is likely related to the exposure of secret U.S. global surveillance operations, especially the "Prismgate" incident. The United States has been the most advanced and effective communications, surveillance and intelligence power for the past 70 years — but that could change if China’s efforts succeed.
More powerful sensors
Quantum computing and communications portend future advantages, but the closest quantum technology to military deployment today is quantum sensing.
The new quantum sensing system provides more sensitive detection and measurement of the physical environment. Existing stealth systems, including the latest generation of fighter jets and ultra-quiet nuclear submarines, may not be so difficult to spot.
Superconducting quantum interference devices (SQUIDs for short) can make extremely sensitive measurements of magnetic fields and are expected to make it easier to detect underwater submarines in the near future [11].
Currently, undetectable submarines armed with nuclear missiles are seen as an important deterrent against nuclear war because they can survive an attack by an enemy state at home and retaliate against the attacker. A more advanced SQUID network could make these submarines more discoverable (and more vulnerable) in the future, thereby tipping the balance of nuclear deterrence and the logic of ensuring mutual destruction.
Potential energy revolution
Major world governments are increasingly focusing on fusion energy research as a potential basis for economic and military advantage in the 21st century and beyond.
In this highly competitive emerging field, Kronos Fusion Energy Defense Systems stated that the quantum computing systems, algorithms and tokamak designs it has developed may be the key factors for the United States to gain a significant advantage in competition with China [12].
Fusion energy, known theoretically since 1920, promises to generate nearly unlimited amounts of energy, with no pollution or radioactive by-products. The rising cost of oil, combined with the specter of global warming, has made developing a viable fusion technology more urgent than ever. The first nation to achieve a breakthrough in practical nuclear fusion will become the world energy leader, with a decisive advantage in commerce, defense and space exploration that could last for generations.
With strong government support and funding (enhanced in the recent 14th Five-Year Plan), Chinese scientists appear to be investing in a $900 million fully-superconducting tokamak fusion experiment facility (EAST, which is known as an "artificial sun"). said) leading the world. EAST recently set a record, maintaining a stable plasma at 120 million degrees for more than 1.5 minutes. China has also added hundreds of millions of dollars to its budget for the operation and upgrade of the EAST reactor, while funding the training of more than 1,000 new fusion physicists.
China EAST
China's booming fusion program is dedicated to developing its quantum computing resources. Centered on the recently established China National Laboratory for Quantum Information Science, the program has received billions of dollars in funding. China currently holds 2.5 times as many deep learning patents as the U.S. and is the cornerstone of advanced quantum computing, while actively seeking further development.
By combining quantum computing and fusion energy into one strong program, Kronos said, it will improve U.S. competitiveness in the field. "Utilizing the power of quantum devices, neural networks and machine learning to process massive amounts of data, test multidimensional arrays of thousands of problems simultaneously, learn and adapt in real time, the powerful simulations developed by Kronos have the potential to build fusion trusts that are 4,000% more efficient than current reactors. Carmack."
Kronos believes that the lightning-fast development and analysis cycles its algorithms provide will give the U.S. a 20-year lead over China in fusion energy production. "Frontier 'proofs of concept' will have the potential to attract strong public and private investment into the broader field of quantum research, giving the United States an edge not only in tokamak design, but also in quantum computing research."
New technologies, new arrangements
Currently, the US is incorporating quantum cooperation agreements into existing alliances such as NATO, as well as more near-term strategic arrangements such as the Australia-UK-US AUKUS security agreement and the Quad security dialogue (Quad) between Australia, India, Japan and the US.
China already cooperates with Russia in many areas of technology, and these events are likely to drive closer quantum cooperation.
During the US-Soviet Cold War, nuclear weapons were transformative technologies. International standards and protocols are developed to standardize them and ensure some level of security and predictability.
Likewise, as the quantum arms race heats up, new protocols and arrangements are needed.
Link:
[1] https://theconversation.com/better-ai-unhackable-communication-spotting-submarines-the-quantum-tech-arms-race-is-heating-up-179482
[2]https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/au/Documents/deloitte-au-quantum-computing-hype-reality-290721.pdf
[3]https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2022/01/19/memorandum-on-improving-the-cybersecurity-of-national-security-department-of-defense-and -intelligence-community-systems/
[4] http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-10/17/c_139447976.htm
[5] https://www.quantum.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/NQI-Annual-Report-FY2021.pdf
[6] https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01402390.2021.1973658
[7] https://www.quantamagazine.org/ai-gets-a-quantum-computing-speedup-20220204/
[8] https://newsroom.ibm.com/2021-11-16-IBM-Unveils-Breakthrough-127-Qubit-Quantum-Processor
[9] https://www.ibm.com/au-en/industries/government/defense-intelligence
[10] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-03093-8
[11]https://www.newscientist.com/article/2144721-chinas-quantum-submarine-detector-could-seal-south-china-sea/
[12]https://www.newswire.com/news/how-kronos-could-help-the-us-win-the-fusion-and-quantum-computing-race-21667926
