World hetero-junction Solar Cell Forecast-2022

Solar photovoltaic power generation system is a new power generation system that uses the photovoltaic effect of solar cell semiconductor materials to directly convert solar radiation energy into electric energy. Photovoltaic industry belongs to the field of new energy. It has the advantages of sustainability, low cost and less regional restrictions. It has become one of the fastest growing industries and the main power source of mankind in the future.

With the progress of technology, the cost of photovoltaic raw materials continues to decrease, which will promote the steady growth of global photovoltaic installed capacity. Under the assumption that the world will achieve carbon neutrality in 2050, it is expected to maintain growth in the future, and the cumulative installed capacity of global photovoltaic will be 4,471.73GW in 2035, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.08% compared with 2020. In addition, China's photovoltaic market also shows an upward trend, from 176.36GW in 2018 to 254.34GW in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 22.11%. It is estimated that the cumulative domestic PV installed capacity will reach 531.62GW (2025), 772.89GW (2030) and 1,117.93GW (2035).

Photovoltaic cells are in the midstream of photovoltaic industry, which are divided into p-type cells and n-type cells. P-type silicon wafer is made by doping boron in silicon material; N-type silicon wafer is made by doping phosphorus in silicon material. The preparation technology of p-type battery includes traditional Al-BSF (aluminum back field) and perc technology. There are many preparation technologies for n-type batteries, including PERT / Perl, TOPCON, IBC and HIT (heterojunction). Among them, HIT (heterojunction battery) technology is subversive and represents the development direction of the next generation technology.

HIT is a battery structure in which an undoped (intrinsic) hydrogenated amorphous silicon film is added between p-type hydrogenated amorphous silicon and n-type hydrogenated amorphous silicon and n-type silicon substrate. It has the advantages of high conversion efficiency, low process temperature, high stability, low attenuation rate, double-sided power generation and so on. In addition, HIT only needs four processes: cleaning and cashmere making, amorphous silicon deposition, TCO deposition and silk screen printing curing, which is lower than perc (8 processes) and TOPCON (9-12 processes).

HIT has great development space in the future photovoltaic market. Assuming that the penetration rate of HIT in the future photovoltaic market is 35% (2025), 45% (2030) and 55% (2035), according to the previous global photovoltaic installed capacity data, it is estimated that the global heterojunction market will reach 460.515 billion yuan in 2025, increase to 1,095.686 billion yuan in 2030, and double to 2,147.764 billion yuan in 2035. According to the same proportion, the scale of China's heterojunction market is expected to reach 165.785 billion yuan in 2025, 306.792 billion yuan in 2030 and 536.941 billion yuan in 2035.

As a new track of more efficient photovoltaic cells, heterojunction technology combines the advantages of silicon wafer and thin film cells and has multiple advantages such as high conversion efficiency and simple process structure. With the continuous promotion of technology renewal and iteration to reduce the cost of power generation, the era of photovoltaic parity Internet access is coming, and the pace of commercialization of global heterojunction is expected to accelerate.

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