Sino-US Quantum Technology Industry Assessment

Recently, the RAND Corporation, a well-known U.S. military strategic research institution, released the "Sino-U.S. Quantum Technology Industry Evaluation" report. The report develops a set of flexible and broadly applicable indicators to assess a country's quantum industry base that attempt to quantify the country's scientific research, government activity, private industry activity and technological achievements. These metrics were then applied to the United States and China. The results for each metric relate to three main application areas of quantum technology: quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum sensing. Finally, the report makes recommendations for policymakers to maintain the fundamental strength of the U.S. quantum technology industry.

The research was sponsored by the Director of the Technology and Manufacturing Base, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, and conducted within the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD) Center for Acquisition and Technology Policy.

The report was completed in October 2021 and underwent a pre-release and security review with sponsors and the Office of Defense prior to its public release.

Introduction to the report

Quantum technologies could provide important new capabilities for the Department of Defense and other government agencies. But quantum information science is almost entirely academic research. Until recently, the private sector has also started to invest in research and development. Given the high degree of uncertainty surrounding new private sector investments and practical applications of this technology and their timelines, it is difficult to make a full assessment of the industrial base of quantum technology.

The report begins by discussing the three strategic goals of the U.S. (and allied) QIB (Quantum Industrial Foundation) sector: quantum technology leadership, quantum technology availability, and the financial stability of QIB companies. From these strategic goals, 31 specific indicators have been developed to assess a country's progress towards these goals. These metrics are broadly applicable to the United States, allies or strategic competitors. The report's research focuses on a detailed assessment of these indicators for the US QIB, but also applies them to the Chinese QIB as a comparative case study. Finally, the evaluation results of quantum technology are decomposed into three main application areas: quantum computing, quantum communication and quantum sensing.

Report Evaluation Metrics

Report indicators are divided into four categories: scientific research indicators, government activity indicators, private industry indicators, and technical indicators.

1. Scientific research indicators assess the aggregate output of academia and other producers of open scientific research—for example, the total number of papers and growth in each application area, the number of papers with high global scientific impact, and research topics and decisions the degree of coordination among priorities. The primary method for evaluating these metrics is a big data analysis of nearly all scientific publications in quantum information science (QIS) and technology worldwide over the past decade.

2. The government activity indicator assesses national government support for quantum technology R&D, such as total R&D funding, long-term stability, and the number of different funding sources. The main methods for evaluating these indicators are: (a) a review of government policy documents, academic literature, and Chinese-language news sources; and (b) a large-scale analysis of funding confirmation areas in scientific publications.

3. The private sector indicator provides an economic overview of the entire private quantum technology sector. For example, the total number of companies, size, age of establishment, level of funding, and any foreign supply chain dependencies for key components. Evaluation methods were: (a) an individual analysis of a large sample of more than 150 quantum technology companies; (b) a review of news and financial reports in both English and Chinese; and (c) a dialogue with subject matter experts from nine industry organizations.

4. Technical indicators are used to assess the global technological level and the innovation potential of specific key technologies. These cross-cutting indicators combine demonstrations from academia, national laboratories, and private industry, so they do not fully fit the previous categories, and they include both industry-wide assessments and individual organizations' assessments of specific technology demonstrations. The main methods for assessing these indicators are: analysis of patent activity, examination of technical scientific literature and other public announcements.

Report research findings

1. The overall U.S. scientific research output in quantum information science is broad and stable, and is at or near the global frontier in every application area.

2. The U.S. government is a major funder of open QIS research and is on track to spend $710 million in QIS R&D across multiple agencies in FY21

3. The deployment of quantum technologies in the United States is now driven by the private sector.

4. The United States leads in technological capabilities in quantum computing and sensing, but not in quantum communications.

5. Like the United States, China has a high research output in every application area of ​​quantum technology.

6. China has conflicting reports on total government R&D funding for quantum technologies.

7. Unlike the U.S., quantum R&D in China is concentrated in government-funded labs that have demonstrated rapid technological advancement.

8. China leads in quantum communication technology capabilities.

9. The ultimate application of quantum technology and its timeline are still highly uncertain.

Report recommendations

Finally, the report makes six recommendations for policymakers:

1. Continue to provide broad government R&D support in the field of quantum technologies, complementing the most active area of ​​private investment.

2. Monitor and, where possible, help protect critical U.S. quantum technology programs.

3. Monitor the financial health and ownership of quantum startups.

4. Monitor the international flow of key elements of the industrial base, such as key components and materials, skilled labor and final quantum technology products.

5. Do not currently impose export controls on quantum computers or quantum communication systems.

6. Periodically reassess the rapidly changing quantum industry base.

Download the original report:https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA869-1.html